We find ourselves still living in the world Bob Dylan sang about—where nothing stays still for long and the only constant is change. So how do we lead through that? One helpful framework that leaders in high-stakes industries have leaned on for years is called VUCA.
What is VUCA?
VUCA is an acronym that stands for:
Volatility – the nature and speed of change.
Uncertainty – the lack of predictability and the difficulty of anticipating events.
Complexity – the number of factors that need to be considered and their interconnections.
Ambiguity – the lack of clarity about meaning, interpretation, or cause-and-effect.
It was originally coined by the U.S. military to describe the chaotic and unpredictable conditions of warfare but has since been adopted in business, leadership, and strategic planning to describe challenging environments.
I re-introduce the term, because we are living in a VUCA world today: volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. Perhaps every generation could say so, but as I write this, there are two active “wars” in Ukraine and Israel (plus all of the smaller conflicts that don’t get much air time), a new administration making dramatic changes to our government, tariffs are making the markets go up and down, and artificial intelligence is relentlessly manipulating our data and changing our perception of truth. VUCA indeed!
It makes it difficult for governments, businesses and people to plan or feel secure. When all we experience is change, unpredictability, confusion and lack of clarity, we are rewarded with anxiety and paralysis. This is VUCA’s dark side, but we don’t need to live here. There is an antidote.
Understanding VUCA and moving forward
So how can you find some footing during unsteady times? Simply, by knowing who you are and where you are going, particularly when the going gets rough. So, let’s shine some light on VUCA. It’s bright side is: vision, understanding, clarity and agility.
Vision slows Volatility
If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. When you have a clearvision and purpose, your decision-making is guided. When you know where you want to go, you can remain more flexible and agile when you need to adapt to change, like a GPS rerouting you around a construction zone. People with purpose remain focused on their goals, and can prepare, plan and strategize when everything is changing all around them.
“Where there is no vision, the people perish” – Proverbs 29:18
Understanding reduces Uncertainty
It does not pay to “bury your head in the sand” during uncertain times. To the contrary, you should increase your awareness and pay attention to what is going on. Gather as much information as you can, listen to many “voices”, analyze data, watch the market. You should open up communication with those around you and seek out different perspectives. Encourage a culture of learning and responsiveness over rigid thinking and planning. You would think that learning would be easy, given all of the media available to us these days, but we are more tribal and divided than ever. If you are only listening to one side, you are missing something.
“Seek first to understand, then to be understood” – Stephen Covey, Seven Habits
Turn Complexity into Clarity
The universe is very complex and there are an infinite number of stars in the night sky. It can be quite beautiful to look at. But when you observe a single star or planet, you can have perfect clarity. The universal complexity remains, but clarity can exist in the midst of it. During uncertain times, it helps to focus on what you can understand and control. Simplify your life where possible. Break down complex challenges into smaller, manageable pieces. Be clear about what you will or won’t do.
“Clarity is the most important thing. I can compare clarity to pruning in gardening. You know, you need to be clear. If you are not clear, nothing is going to happen. You have to be clear. Then you have to be confident about your vision. And after that, you just have to put a lot of work in.” Diane von Furstenberg
Ambiguity requires Agility
Agility has been a differentiator in the sports world for a long time. The most agile athletes, adapt quickly, avoiding the hit, or hitting the curveball. So, agility “drills” make up a large percentage of their professional training time. Since 2001, Agile has been a project management and software development approach. It focuses on the smaller parts of the work instead of the whole, so teams can adapt to change more quickly. Agile isn’t about following specific processes, but about timely feedback and getting better quicker. Real agility is a mindset that you can practice:
Foster a comfort with experimentation and learning from failure. When you fail, you learn to adjust, which makes you more agile. Learning from failure is, also, a big part of the Finnish culture and SISU. I reference October 13th, the Finnish Day of Failure, when “failure” is celebrated. Remember, you cannot succeed without failure, so fail faster.
Use scenario building to help you think about the “what ifs”. You can adapt more quickly if you have considered some of your potential options. You will spend less time staring into the “headlights”, and more time getting on your way.
Finally, practice being agile, do the “drills”. When you don’t have clarity, you can prepare to be nimble. Resist the default “victim” mentality and develop an agile mindset so you can pivot quickly and creatively.
“I’ve got miracle lyrical capability all in me / With the agility to escape a killer bee colony.” -Eminem
In conclusion, the dark side of VUCA will always be with us, but it has less impact when you know who you are, what you want and what is important to you. The stoics would ask, “Why are you worrying about the future, anyway?” They tell us that, when the time comes, you will be smart enough and strong enough to get through it, just like the challenges you are facing right now, today. So, there is no need to bring any future suffering forward. Also, we can lean on SISU when the discomfort of VUCA evokes anxiety. We can remain optimistically determined to make the best of any situation.
Finally, VUCA fixes VUCA. Vision, Understanding, Clarity and Agility fixes Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. Try to be proactive, adaptive, and resilient. Focus on flexibility rather than absolute control.
Control what is controllable and “this too shall pass” (Lincoln).
